ESPN Wisconsin Blogs - Bill Johnson
3-2 last week (3-0 in the colleges) as we continue to bash your book at 9-6 overall on the season. Without further ado, we present your week 4 bookie blasters:
Oregon -7.5 @ Colorado- This line plummeted after the Ducks got waxed by Utah. It happens, but the betting public over reacted. You can take advantage. They'll win in Boulder by three touchdowns.
Missouri -3 vs South Carolina- Coach Pinkel's Tigers are smarting from their loss in Lexington, but Spurrier is DONE in Columbia. Everyone around the Cocks, including the players knows it. Missouri by a lot.
Michigan State -21.5 vs Purdue- I know, this is a lot of wood, but Michigan State is a legit National Title contender. Meanwhile, the Boilers are 1-3 and can't stop anyone. Something like 66-13 sounds about right.
Dolphins +1.5 vs Jets- Philbin's last stand. Suh has heard the criticism this week. Picture Charles Jefferson after Spicolli wrecked his car. I pity the Amish Rifle.
Jaguars +9 @ Colts- OK, I get it. You don't have to beat me over the head. The Colts are void of talent once you get past 12, especially in the trenches. This does not bode well. They'll beat the Jags, but barely.
After a 4-1 week (3-0 in the NFL), we are a bookie busting 6-4 after two weeks. Here are this week's gems:
Kentucky -2.5 vs Missouri- These are not your drunken, toothless, uncle/cousin's Wildcats. Coach Stoops has made the trip to Lexington much less pleasant, as Coach Pinkel and the Tigers will find out.
Oklahoma State -3 @ Texas- Forget the Red River Shootout. This disappointing group in burnt orange will get their lunch stolen by the red headed step children from Stillwater. BTW, Mike Gundy is now 48, and still a man.
Cal -4 @ Washington- Golden Bears QB Jared Goff is drawing comparisons to...wait for it...ole' number 8 Aaron Rodgers. (BLASPHEMY!!!) His bid to be the first QB drafted in 2016 gets a big boost with a road win in Seattle to start the PAC 12 season.
Ravens -2.5 vs Bengals- Flacco's boys are way to good to fall to 0-3.
Rams +1 vs Steelers- Lame duck St. Louis football team has a great D. They'll win it on a defensive TD.
We look to bounce back from a lackluster 2-3 debut last week. Here we go:
LSU -6.5 vs Auburn- The Bayou Bengals are stacked in 2015, while War Eagle has been shaky at best.
GTech -2.5 over Notre Dame- Tough breaks just keep coming for the Irish, now they have to face Paul Johnson's tough option. They aren't ready.
Panthers -3 vs Houston- The Panthers aren't very good, but Houston is a disaster. It's 2015, and they don't have a quarterback. Everyone should be fired.
Patriots -1 @ Bills- Don't over think this one. That team that you saw blast the Steelers on opening night, you only have to lay 1 point to take them. Do it every time.
Falcons +2 @ Giants- The Falcons have had talent. Dan Quinn has brought new life, and Julio is healthy. They will boat race the G men.
For entertainment purpose only, I'll try to put my best plays up every week. Enjoy!!!
Iowa State + 3.5 over Iowa (straight up)
South Carolina -7 over Kentucky
Packers -7 over Bears
Chiefs -1 over Texans
Colts -2.5 over Bills
Well, here it is. Remember there is very little science involved in this. I arrive at these standings by picking every single NFL game. I believe that I have all of the tiebreakers and home fields correct, but there always seems to be a little disagreement on that. Anyway, let's play football!!!!
NFC EAST AFC EAST
(2) Eagles 12-4 (3) Patriots 12-4
(5) Washington 11-5 Dolphins 7-9
(6) Cowboys 11-5 Jets 4-12
Giants 5-11 Bills 4-12
NFC NORTH AFC NORTH
(1) Packers 13-3 (4) Steelers 11-5
Lions 10-6 (6) Browns 9-7
Vikings 8-8 Ravens 7-9
Bears 3-13 Bengals 5-11
NFC SOUTH AFC SOUTH
(4) Saints 8-8 (1) Colts 13-3
Falcons 6-10 (5) Titans
Panthers 5-11 Jaguars 6-10
Buccs 5-11 Texans 6-10
NFC WEST AFC WEST
(3) Seahawks 11-5 (2) Brancos 12-4
Rams 10-6 Chargers 7-9
Cardinals 9-7 Chiefs 7-9
49ers 4-12 Raiders 6-10
NFC WILDCARD AFC WILDCARD
Cowboys over Seahawks Patriots over Browns
Redskins over Saints Steelers over Titans
NFC DIVISIONAL AFC DIVISIONAL
Packers over Cowboys Broncos over Patriots
Eagles over Washington Colts over Steelers
NFC CHAMPIONSHIP AFC CHAMPIONSHIP
Packers over Eagles Colts over Broncos
Packers 41 Colts 28
BY BILL JOHNSON
With the draft right around the corner, I thought we’d look back at Ted Thompson’s drafts since he took over in 2005. I haven’t ranked every pick, but I have ranked most of them according to a very unscientific scale.
Hits: Star players taken in the early rounds, or solid contributors taken in the later rounds
Solid: Contributors taken in the early rounds or picks that contributed for other teams
Misses: Busts or picks whose injuries kept them from any contribution
I thought it was still too early to evaluate 2014, but with HaHa, Corey Linsley, DaVante Adams and others, this class could nose its way into the top 3 or 4 next year.
So here we go, from worst to first.
9. 2012- Hits: Casey Hayward 2b, Mike Daniels 4a,
Solid: 1 Nick Perry
Misses: 2a Jerel Worthy, 4b Jeron McMillian, 5 Terrell Manning, 7a Andrew Datko, 7b BJ Coleman
Thompson infamously took defensive players with his first six picks in 2012. Even before the injury, it was clear early that Worthy was a mistake. Their reliance on McMillian to be a starting safety cost them.
8. 2006- Hits: 2b Greg Jennings, 6a Johnny Jolly
Solid: Daryn Colledge 2a, AJ Hawk 1, Will Blackmon 4b, Dave Tollefson 7
Misses: 3a Abdul Hodge, 3b Jason Spitz, 4a Cory Rodgers, 5a Ingle Martin
Jennings was a great pick, and Jolly was a steal when he was available. This was another draft in which Thompson focused on a position group of need, the o-line. Colledge was a solid pro, but not worthy of a second round pick, Spitz couldn’t stay healthy, and Moll was just a guy. Rodgers never made it out of camp.
7. 2007- Hits: 3a James Jones, 6b Desmond Bishop, 6c Mason Crosby
Solid: Brandon Jackson 2, Korey Hall 6a, Allen Barbre 4
Misses: 1 Justin Harrell, 3b Aaron Rouse
While I always hesitate to suggest that arrogance has any factor in Ted Thompson’s decisions, you have to wonder what prompted the selection of Justin Harrell. His worst pick. In the third, Aaron Rouse lived up to his ominous scouting report “Looks like Tarzan. Plays like Jane.”
6. 2011- Hits: Randall Cobb 2, Davon House 4
Solid: DJ Smith 6b, 7a Ryan Taylor
Misses: 1 Derek Sherrod, 3 Alex Green, 5 DJ Williams, 6a Caleb Schlauteraff, 6c Ricky Elmore
Cobb is great, and they were obviously right on House. Just too many total whiffs in 2011, Sherrod being the biggest blunder.
5. 2008- Hits: 2a Jordy Nelson, 3 Jermichael Finley, 4b Josh Sitton, 7a Matt Flynn
Solid: 5 Breno Giacomini,
Misses- 2 Brian Brohm, 2b Pat Lee, 4a Jeremy Thompson
Four big hits in this draft, but they completely missed on two of their three second rounders and an early fourth rounder.
4- 2009- Hits: 1b Clay Matthews, 4 TJ Lang,
Solid: 1a BJ Raji, Jarius Wynn 6a, Brad Jones 7
Misses: 5a Quinn Johnson, 6b Brandon Underwood 6b
An uncharacteristic move up into the first round proved wise for Thompson with the selection of field tilter Matthews. Raji can move back into hit category with a comeback season. Lang has developed into a solid guard.
3. 2010- Hits: Bryan Bulaga 1, Morgan Burnett 3, James Starks 6
Solid- 2 Mike Neal, 5a Andrew Quarless, 5b Marshall Newhouse, 7 CJ Wilson
Burnett and Bulaga earned their way back onto the hit list last season. No misses. Maybe less picks are better?
2. 2005- Hits: Rodgers 1st, Collins 2nd
Solid: Brady Poppinga 4b
Misses: Terrence Murphy 2b (injury), Marviel Underwood 4a, Junius Coston 5a, Mike Hawkins 5b
It’s hard not to put the Rodgers draft number one, especially with Collins taken in the second round. Just more misses than 2013. Great draft.
2013- Hits: Eddie Lacy 2, David Bahktiari 4a, 5a Micah Hyde, 7c Sam Barrington
Solid: Datone Jones 1, JC Tretter 4, Johnathan Franklin 4c, Josh Boyd 5b, Charles Johnson 7a,
A franchise RB, your LT for the next decade, a versatile playmaker in the secondary with return skills, and a starting caliber ILB. Jones can move up with continued solid performance. No misses.
Well, there it is. Let me know what you think. email@example.com.
There are no games scheduled for today.